Black Bear Island into 6/1 for the Derby

2/1 favourite Crowded House was crowded out today in one of the key pre-Derby races, the Dante Stakes at York. It was an Aiden O'Brien 1-2 with Black Bear Island edging out Freemantle.

And what does this mean for the Derby betting? Well, we're looking at Fame and Glory going to outright favourite with most bookies at 5/2, but Fame and Glory didn't take the traditional route of the Dante on the way to the Derby. He remains unbeaten, while Crowded House now looks exposed. What became clear is that the trip does not suit - and if that doesn't suit, then how is the undulating Epsom course going to suit? Not a good choice.

Three of the last five Derby winners have won the Dante, so that puts Black Bear Island on anyone's shortlist. Aiden O'Brien has tested this colt out in France and Ireland, so to win the Dante on his first trip to the UK is impressive. But it's back to Fame and Glory who is taking an alternative route to the Derby for Aiden O'Brien - is 5/2 really justified on the back of 3 wins against moderate opposition?

I'm personally looking at Kite Wood, whose recent win at Ascot picks him out as one with guts and a bit of quality - he'll also have Frankie Dettori on board. I'd also add that Freemantle will get a better ride at Epsom. And I'll further that by saying that I know about as much as the bookmakers, and that's why the odds are so volatile.

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published: 14th May 2009 by Free Bet Bookmaker

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